Page 32 - Wire Rope News & Sling Technology - December 2018

continued from page 30 along as it is and unemployment lower, there are signs that the fast-moving
lems peeking over the horizon, for busi- employers may need to raise wages economic carriage may be nearing the
nesses of all stripes: to attract enough people,” says Hoyt. top of the roller coaster. “The nation is
• Labor shortage. “The labor short- That can crimp profits. experiencing robust economic growth,
age and skills deficit is a major issue • Rising interest rates. Higher costs tightening labor and product markets,
for businesses,” says Manzella. “If you of money pose a challenge for everyone, intensifying wage and price pressures,
can’t find the employees you need, you especially if the Federal Reserve raises monetary tightening, and higher in-
can’t grow your business. And if you rate too quickly. “Rising interest rates terest rates,” says Koropeckyj. “These
have to go where the skills are, that may not cause much impact in the short characterize a business cycle nearing
might mean moving overseas.” term,” says Palisin. “But later in 2019 its end, just prior to a recession.”
Palisin concurs. “In our survey, about the higher cost of money may start to When might that event occur? “We
70 percent of manufacturers plan to in- constrict the availability of capital.” prefer not to forecast recessions, be-
crease employment next year, but over • Health care costs. “On the cost cause they are often caused by shocks
90 percent have had difficulty hiring side, health care is still a concern,” says that cannot be predicted,” says Koro-
enough skilled trades. They are espe- Palisin. “Some 70 percent of our mem- peckyj. “However, our forecast for 2020
cially concerned about what’s called ‘the bers report an increase in medical costs includes a set of conditions that are
silver tsunami,’ in which baby boomers over the past year. Again, there is a lot consistent with a recession. While we
are leaving the workforce, taking their of unpredictability in that sector. Will do not expect the textbook definition-
skills and knowledge with them. At the the Affordable Care Act continue? Be -two quarters of GDP decline—to occur,
same time not as many young people replaced? And will that result in higher real GDP growth is expected to slow to
are going into skilled trades.” costs? Employers don’t know where all a crawl.” Other relevant predictions in-
In response to the talent shortage, this is going.” clude a too-rapid increase in unemploy-
manufacturers are increasing work • A “hard Brexit.” If The U.K. fails ment, the cessation of job growth, flat
hours for their current employees, in- to land a favorable deal with the Eu- industrial production, and a decelera-
troducing more automation, and run- ropean Union, an unmoderated depar- tion of personal income growth.
ning apprenticeship training programs ture can cause problems to the world For businesses of all stripes, the pru-
to build workforce pipelines within their economy. “We expect a Brexit deal to be dent course seems to involve capital-
companies. “All this will help, but it reached at the last minute,” says Hoyt. izing on the current good times while
won’t solve the problem,” says Palisin. “If it is not, it would be a negative for setting up Plan B for the inevitable
“That’s why many companies are being the global economy and US consum- correction. “Businesses are optimistic
proactive in promoting manufacturing ers as supply chains and movement of about 2019, but we are all aware that
careers in their local school districts.” workers would be disrupted.” recessions are cyclical,” says Manzella.
• Wage hikes. It’s the negative re- “And there is no doubt that the next re-
sult of low unemployment: Higher la- Business cycle ages cession is on its way. The only question
bor costs. “With the economy chugging To look a bit further down the track, is when.” WRN

In 1924, Germany’s ‘Adolf Bleichert & Co.’ celebrated
its 50th Anniversary. By the time of this occasion,
the company had designed and built the world’s
record holding wire ropeways: Longest and highest
elevation (Argentina); Length of system over water
(New Caledonia); Steepest (Tanzania); Highest
capacity (France); Northernmost (Norway); and,
Southernmost (Chile).

Written by the great-great grandson of the
company’s founder, this book includes over 100
pictures and detailed engineering drawings that
explore the legendary company’s history, and
several of its record-holding systems.

Available at Amazon.com for your
Kindle or in paperback.

Available at CreateSpace.com
in paperback.
‘Like’ it on Facebook for
relevant information and news.

32 Wire Rope News & Sling Technology December 2018